Question2008Answers!
Economy
We're starting the year with a bang both on Wall Street and energy market, oil reaching a long-awaited milestone due to rapidly escalating energy demand and tightening supplies. Of course, it doesn't necessarily mean the year end is going to look the same. A strong brew of a weak housing market, a slowdown in consumer spending, and tight credit markets are likely to result in slower economic growth in 2008. Economists expect continued economic expansion in 2008, but at a slower pace,particularly in the first half of the year, as the contraction in the housing sector plays out and turbulence continues in the credit markets. Some expect the economy to grow at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first half of 2008, down 1.5% from an expected 2.8% for the second half of 2007, before rebounding to a 2.5% rate through the second half of 2008. Some economists now believe a recession is likely next year. However, along with accommodative monetary policy, a decline in the price of oil, and solid exports from a lower dollar and global growth should help lower the recession risk. To see in what magnitude the slowdown should hit jobs.and how severe consumer spending is likely to suffer from the effects of the slow housing market and reduced credit availability. Will In terms of monetary policy the Federal Open Market Committee likely reduce the target Fed funds rate by another 25 basis points to 4.0% at the January meeting, and cut another 50 basis points in the first half of 2008 to reach 3.5% by April. What about earnings, should we expect positive growth from consumer staples, energy, and materials.
Portfolio
Does it mean anything to investors? Maybe, by building a well-balanced portfolio that could result in annualized total return of 11.1% through the next 20 years or so?
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Comments: View Comments | Thursday January 3, 2008
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Archive Comments (7)
Great job! You ended #19 which is really phenomenal for a buy and hold investor. I totally agree with you that it's what happens year in year out over the next 20 years that matters.
Posted by Eileen Teska January 3, 2008 6:18 PM
Armin ( Hammer)
Eileen's "STUcK" on U - so am I U Son of a Gun.
Here's a Link to Songs of the Sea :
100's of Chanty's, etc.
I'm Listening to Sally Brown as I type.
http://www.contemplator.com/sea/index.html
I told DuffBeer ( Dave Bigos ) that I admired you SLO-Test MosTest.
Here's a Website for Naval Slang to "Improve" your Wavy Navy Gravy Flogging & Bloging Colorourful S'language.
Covey Crump's Royal Navy Dictionary
Get Salty, You Salty Dog
http://www.royal-navy.mod.uk/server/show/conWebDoc.1257
I really LIKED the cut of your jib - so did Duffy when he wasn't 3 sheets into the Wind or with that Fire-Ship of a Mudder In ( Admiralty ) Law
Don Lee Ferk ( aka VikingWarrior )
( former SLO-Port : RuthlessIntent )
Posted by don ferk January 3, 2008 7:55 PM
Don't worry, you all did excellent jobs whether with portfolios or valuable post!
Thanks to Eileen, Don Ferk and others for following this simple buy and hold strategy! Anyways, I believe that stock market investing is all about time frame and selection and not about daily "from euphoria to ugh" quick rich programs. In fact, I don't agree with Buffett when he says: our time frame is forever! It seems very short sighted and doesn't suffice. though. LOL
Chapeau, Don Ferk, you are able to energize your thoughts, making 720 degrees swirls time and again!
Posted by Anonymous January 4, 2008 6:28 AM
Astuk,
You are the very 1st one to indicate that you understand the Closed Ellliptical Nature of my Writing. Start at a Point and come around full-circle like a ship returning to HomePort.
You should be a Literary Critic and / or read MellVill's Moby Dick.
I'm IshMael in the Book - Call me Ishmael - The Wanderer - I am a Wondering Wanderer - I DRIFT with the flotsam and the Jetsam - Whale Ambergris in a Sickening Sea of Vanity & Greed.
SWIRLz iz 4 Gurlz or Brass Monkeys - How about WhirlPools, Toroidal Hurricane & Typhoons.
The Vortex with a Vertex & a ComPass.
A Descent into the Maelstrom.
A Tornadic Water Spout of Trouble withOUT a Cause or a Pause.
Halcyon Winds, LeeWard Admiral Astuk
I wiil BeLay that now, Mate.
I'm SHOVING off,
Don Lee Ferk ( former able-bodied SeaMan on the SLO Boat to No Where )
"Now, I think of my happy condition - Surrounded by Acres of Clams ".
I just 'Clammed' UP.
Posted by Anonymous January 4, 2008 8:36 AM
ASTUK,
I forgot your
Song for the day :
You can hear the TUNE @ the Link below :
http://www.geocities.com/lilandr/kantoj/diversaj/AcresOfClams1.htm
Lay of the Old Settler
Acres of Clams
( aka Old Rosin, the Beau )
Francis Henry, ca. 1874, alt.
Written in the 1870s by a police court judge, this song achieved prominence decades later through radio-show singer Ivar Haglund, who made it the theme song of Acres of Clams, his flagship seafood restaurant on the Seattle Waterfront's Pier 54. My eight-verse Esperanto translation lacks the "jumping-off place" stanza. The tune is "Old Rosin, the Beau", of Irish provenance but long naturalized in the US. (It's often called "Rosin the Bow", but I think that's the wrong end of the pun.)
I've traveled all over this country
Prospecting and digging for gold;
I've tunneled, hydraulicked and cradled,
And I have been frequently sold --
And I have been frequently so-o-old,
And I have been frequently sold:
I've tunneled, hydraulicked and cradled,
And I have been frequently sold!
For one who gained riches by mining,
Perceiving that hundreds grew poor,
I made up my mind to try farming,
The only pursuit that was sure --
The only pursuit that was su-u-ure,
The only pursuit that was sure,
I made up my mind to try farming,
The only pursuit that was sure!
So, rolling my grub in my blanket,
I left all my tools on the ground
And started one morning to shank it
For the country they call Puget Sound --
For the country they call Puget Sou-ou-ound,
For the country they call Puget Sound,
I started one morning to shank it
For the country they call Puget Sound.
Arriving flat broke in midwinter,
I found the land shrouded in fog
And covered all over with timber
Thick as hairs on the back of a dog --
Thick as hairs on the back of a do-o-og,
Thick as hairs on the back of a dog --
And covered all over with timber
Thick as hairs on the back of a dog!
When I looked on the prospects so gloomy,
The tears trickled over my face
And I thought that my travels had brought me
To the end of the jumping-off place!
To the end of the jumping-off pla-a-ace,
To the end of the jumping-off place:
I thought that my travels had brought me
To the end of the jumping-off place.
I staked me a claim in the forest,
And sat myself down to hard toil:
For six years I chopped and I labored,
But I never got down to the soil --
But I never got down to the soi-oi-oil,
I never got down to the soil:
For six years I chopped and I labored,
But I never got down to the soil!
I tried to get out of the country,
But poverty forced me to stay --
Until I became an old settler,
Then nothing could drive me away!
Then nothing could drive me away-ay-ay,
Then nothing could drive me away!
Until I became an old settler --
Then nothing could drive me away!
And now that I'm used to the climate,
I think that if a man ever found
A place to live easy and happy,
That Eden is on Puget Sound --
That Eden is on Puget Sou-ou-ound,
That Eden is on Puget Sound --
A place to live easy and happy?
That Eden is on Puget Sound!
No longer the slave of ambition,
I laugh at the world and its shams
As I think of my pleasant condition,
Surrounded by acres of clams --
Surrounded by acres of cla-a-ams,
Surrounded by acres of clams,
As I think of my happy condition,
Surrounded by acres of clams!
Posted by don ferk January 4, 2008 11:47 AM
Astuk, where were you did you take your famous parents on a holiday cruise ?? Thanks for the 2008 prognosis .It was simple and clear ,Duff could understand it even while sipping a beer !!!!
I saw you figured VW out !!!!! You should bet awarded a Nobel peace prize. Be careful when your driving the ship do not be like a dog chasing his tail. China and India need those commodities.
I noticed Eileen chimed in too . Why is it she always answer YOU ??
Cheers, DuffBeer
Posted by duffbeer January 5, 2008 5:31 PM
Hi duffbeer,
No holiday cruise but have spent some time sailing safely on one island I call it trader's paradise, where one just like to come to the beach, just sit here and soak it all in, sipping a beer in such a perfect mix, included!
Cheers,Armin
Posted by astuk January 8, 2008 7:04 AM