A Bad Jobs Report - Time To Short?

The jobs report came out today and it was far worse that economists' expectations. Roughly twenty thousand jobs were lost against a consensus forecast of a 10,000 gain; revisions showed 1.2 million jobs more jobs than previously reported were lost from April 2008 to March 2009; the number of discouraged workers and dropping out of the work force (so to speak) increased by roughly a quarter of a million. The unemployment rate was 9.7%.

Other data from the household jobs report - something a bit different announced at the same time - showed a gain of people in households working and the net result was confusing.

Ignore the unemployment rate - the issue is the number of people working for that generates national income, the heart of spending and GDP. The work force continues to shrink every month, skewing unemployment numbers - but this is the data point you need to watch. And that keeps falling - statisticians just loss another million point two jobs - and with the decline in the labor force participation rate comes a decline in national income.

So yes, it is time to short barring other issues such as foreign debt, the dollar trade and so on. The jobs report tells me the foundation of a double dip - in the real world - is in place, which means reduced corporate profits and are valuation of the market. So at a minimum there are no tailwinds supporting the market.

Where to start? Where the optimists live -- high end consumer discretionary spending and retailers -- who needs a boat (BC), a motorcycle (HOG), a jewel (TIF) - , who posted good yesterday that were misleading. More later.