A Kiss for Sleeping Beauty
You've got to hand it to Ben Bernanke. He's not going to let this economy drift off into a deadly sleep without trying every spell-breaking trick in the book.
Today's announcement from the Federal Reserve may prove to be the kiss that finally rouses Sleeping Beauty. For months, the nation's central bank has used a variety of monetary tools, conventional and unconventional, in an effort to break the credit markets out of their deepening coma.
The Fed has engineered a steep drop in the interest rate that banks charge on short-term loans to each other (federal funds). Since December, the Bernanke team has also loaned as much as $160 billion to banks through a special short-term auction facility.
What makes today's initiative any different? For one thing, size. The Fed is enlarging its program to $200 billion. In addition, 20 of the "primary" dealers in government securities (the Merrill Lynches and Morgan Stanleys of the world), as well as commercial banks, can now obtain cheap credit from the Fed. The borrowers can also put up a much wider range of collateral, even including bank-issued mortgage paper (as long as it's triple-A rated).
Judging from the stock market's exuberant reaction to the news, I suspect that the Fed has at last found the magic formula that will end the credit crunch. Not tomorrow, of course. But by the end of this month or early April, we should begin to see unmistakable signs that that the panic is subsiding.
Today's market action brought us the first 9:1 volume day on the NYSE since late November. (The number of shares traded in advancing stocks exceeded that in declining stocks by more than 9:1.) As you know, I've complained that the absence of a 9:1 session made January's market bottom suspect. Now the defect has been repaired.
Ideally, the market should advance for another two to four days, then pull back sometime next week to the vicinity of yesterday's lows (around 1270 on the S&P). On that pullback, I'll be looking to buy leveraged vehicles, such as call options and double-bull funds, to bet on the upside.

