We're hearing more and more talk lately about the possibility of an economic downturn -- especially after today's gloomy reports on consumer confidence (Conference Board) and housing prices (Dr. Bob Shiller). So is a recession really in the works?

It's going to be a close call. Clearly, the housing slowdown -- which has proved longer and deeper than I initially expected -- is putting a damper on the overall economy, the consumer sector in particular.

Fewer people these days dare to use their home equity as an ATM. That's hurting a wide swath of industries -- starting with the obvious housing-related businesses like furniture or power tools, and fanning out to things like cars, boats and even apparel.

Despite the day-to-day jitters, though, I think the economy will skate past the hole in the ice. Corporate profits, in the aggregate, should continue to grow in the quarters ahead. I don't foresee an earnings implosion a la 2000 to 2001.