There's a friendly debate going on right now in the investment community. Last Friday, the Federal Reserve Board cut interest rates -- or did they? Apparently, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke wants to keep us guessing.

Yes, of course, it's a matter of public record that the nation's central bank trimmed half a point off its so-called discount rate -- the rate the Fed charges on emergency loans it makes to member banks of the Federal Reserve System. The Fed also extended the repayment period on loans made at the discount window, from the usual overnight deadline to 30 days.

However, bank borrowings at the discount window amount to a drop in the monetary ocean. According to the St. Louis branch of the Fed, which keeps tabs on such things, total borrowings from the Fed during the week of August 15 equaled a mere $271 million, compared with a monetary base (from all sources) of $861 billion.

In short, it seems to me that Dr. Ben -- in an effort to calm the financial markets -- is pretending to ease credit, when in fact what he has offered up to now is nothing more than a symbolic gesture.

I do believe, though, that the Fed will get around to issuing a real rate cut soon, probably at the regular September 18 policy meeting. That's the message from the market for Treasury securities, where traders have driven the three-month T-bill yield down to 3.4% today (it actually fell below 3% during yesterday's session). Investors wouldn't accept a 3.4% T-bill over 5.25% bank deposits unless they believed that the rate on bank paper was going to drop soon.

When the "real" rate cut comes through, it will provide strong reassurance that the Fed understands the risks to the Main Street economy from the turmoil on Wall Street. Stocks will rally, perhaps dramatically. Make sure you're on board before it happens!