Today's Dow 14000 close is generating a lot of excitement among the investment community's professional chattering class. But big, round numbers are far less important than what's occurring beneath the stock market's placid surface.
Here the news is decidedly mixed. While the major equity indexes are testing multiyear (and, in some cases, all-time) highs, fewer and fewer individual stocks are coming along for the ride.
Take one of my basic indicators, the percentage of NYSE common stocks trading above their 50-day (10 week) average price. Back in late April, when this latest intermediate-term rally (off the mid-March lows) was lifting off, a robust 80% of Big Board stocks were quoted above their 50-day average.
In June, at the first significant market peak before a swirl of turbulence set in, the figure reached a still-healthy 77%.
This month, despite two stabs at new all-time highs by the Dow, our gauge shows barely 60% of the NYSE roster in an uptrend. Historically, such a sharp weakening of the market's internal cohesion has almost always signaled a pullback in the offing.
I'm not saying stock prices have to tumble tomorrow. But this is a time to be extra careful with new commitments. If you're sitting on stocks or mutual funds you don't really want to own, my advice is to sell them now, while the selling is good.