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June 2008 Archives

June 10, 2008

Staying Prepared for Uptrends and Downtrends

Here at Trader's Advantage we thrive in an environment full of volatility. With uneven expectations among bulls and bears creating an ever rising and falling market, my subscribers and I are in heaven. The best part about the current environment is that several indexes and sectors are in well defined uptrends. I always go out of my way to make sure that my subscribers latch onto these uptrends as they come along and get out with two fistfuls of profit before these trends begin to head south. This allows us to have both long and short positions with confidence, a condition that reduces our overall risk.

In most presidential election years, June and July are typically very strong for the market as hope swells for both parties' candidates, and the mud hasn't begun slinging in earnest. Usually the good vibes would have already begun, so the lack of a positive overtone in the market so far is a bit surprising, and perhaps a touch disturbing. I wouldn't count the bulls out quite yet, but with volatility rising - a condition almost always associated with market weakness - let's just say that buyers have a lot of work to do.

This past week I advised my subscribers on exactly which stocks will do the heavy lifting for them. After all, who wants to spend their every waking minute glued to their computer screen in order to watch the market rise and fall along with the rest of their portfolio? By following my guidance, my subscribers are able to live their lives in relative ease knowing that their portfolios are being taken care with the help of my careful planning, observation and continuous technical analysis.

When selling is extreme, as it was in November, January and March, an index or individual stock can get progressively more oversold, but this at least tells an investor when to be ready for a potential final wash out. With careful weekly advice as well as plenty of charts that I use as helpful visual aides, I'm always ready to alert my subscribers of when it's time to get out as well as to buy in. By constantly keeping a close eye on the market and passing my finds on to my subscribers, we're always ready to use the market's uptrends and downtrends to our advantage.

If you're interested in learning how to make your own portfolio do all of the heavy lifting so that you are brought in plentiful amounts of profit no matter what the market environment, sign up for Trader's Advantage today! I can't wait to share with you all of the stocks and uptrends I've found for my subscribers in order to provide you with profit that will survive any amount of volatility.

June 20, 2008

Solid Gains From Shorting

To tell you the truth, unlike some investors, I have no qualms about suggesting that my subscribers short stocks in order to make a profit--especially when the market behaves badly. And let's face it: Today's market isn't exactly the picture of perfection (to say the least).

This is especially true when stocks continue to act like they want to go down hard this week, validating our skeptical posture toward corporate earnings trends. With trading volume low and financial shares dropping into a hole, you can almost sense institutional investors walking away from major companies. For me, though, this is a very exciting environment to be in. Negative scenarios amongst major companies provide plenty of opportunities for growth within my subscribers' Trader's Advantage portfolios. That's why almost every week I'm offering them yet another new, exciting company in which they can short a stock and make out like a bandit in a very short amount of time.

If you're looking for proof on the benefits of shorting stocks, then let me tell you about one of my favorite examples of how to benefit from a falling sector. Just this past Wednesday, I updated my subscribers on the fact that my short recommendation, Aircastle (AYR) an aircraft lessor, stopped out. With this stop, my Trader's Advantage subscribers were left with a 17.6% profit. This nice profit was pocketed away in just a week. If you think that's incredible, then you won't even believe this next nugget of information: This was the second time in a row that I suggested my subscribers short AYR. I just couldn't help but immediately recommend it again under a new stop and target after it brought my subscribers in a very nice 11% profit the first time around. This just goes to show that if you set emotions aside (which is always a wise choice when investing), then you can truly learn to profit from the market's current falling sectors. Sure, the optimists may consider this taking pleasure from others' pain, but to me and several other savvy investors, it's a fact of life. Business is business, and often that's what practicing smart investing comes down to.

Sure, there's always a time, stock and/or sector to buy in. Don't get me wrong, I'm not against holding on to a stock for the long haul with the faith that it'll go up, but I do realize that this is not always the right direction to head in while investing if you want to walk away with on overall profit. And who doesn't love profit?

While facing a volatile market, which has become the norm these days, do more than just optimistically buy stocks, instead exercise your option to short. In my opinion, it's your ticket to avoiding unnecessary risks.

June 26, 2008

A United Fed

Why are we still moving down? In other words, why can't the Fed just fix this thing like it has so many times in the past? We need to understand the Fed's action through the prism of the dollar. For the first time in the postwar era, our central bankers are fighting a two-front war. On the one hand, they must cut interest rates to a level at which home mortgages become so affordable that the depressed residential construction market can get back on its feet and where small businesses can borrow cheaply and expand their operations and do more hiring. On the other hand, central bankers must not cut rates so low as to do more damage to the dollar, as that has the effect of pushing commodity prices higher and also hurting the economies of our global trading partners.

In that context, the Fed did the right thing yesterday by keeping rates at 2%. With inflation at around 4%, the real cost of money today is virtually zero. So the bankers' renewed focus on trying to get commodity inflation to simmer down is the correct call. I was encouraged that the vote was 9-1 because that shows that the Fed is united in its decision, and will give some comfort to the markets by informing them that a strong hand is guiding the way. At a time when the financial markets are still dysfunctional, we need a sense that the folks in charge have a plan. The Fed didn't raise rates to defend the dollar, but they didn't cut rates to just pander to Congress either. That's a big positive.

Ultimately, I think the Fed is going to have to swallow its pride on inflation and cut rates to 1.5%. That's what it will take to really revive housing by pushing long-term mortgages to around 5%. That will also be the level at which financial institutions will have a large enough spread between the cost of money and their lending rates to create a "carry trade" that provides the big profits necessary to offset all their mortgage losses.

In the meantime, I'm still advising my Trader's Advantage subscribers to remain skeptical of financials and homebuilders, while recommending to them several stocks to short in order to profit from this downturn market. If you're interested in learning more about my advice for surviving today's market I'd be happy to have you stop by for a visit. Every Wednesday I post a weekly issue filled with market news, as well as my stock recommendations and advice. You'll also find that I'm a fan of flash alerts for those over-the-top days, where you just need a little extra advice to get you through.