One of the few stocks that really hasn't been very volatile at all this year is Walt Disney Co. (DIS). It also hasn't offered much in the way of upside either, unfortunately. The most it was ever up this year was around 5% in May, and shares have just languidly lolled around ever since -- never being pulled under by the credit crunch, but not rising as a safe haven, either.
But the key element that I have always liked about Disney is that it has always focused on creating first-rate content. Indeed, Disney does exactly what you would expect from a modern business -- it's never content to make just one product stand on its own. It integrates each product and wrings as much value out of it as possible. New ideas start with the theatrical release of an animated or live-action movie, then you have DVD sales, TV licensing deals, sequels, merchandising and often a theme-park attraction. And, of course, all of the filmed portions add to an outstanding, growing library that can be reused in countless ways at increasing profit margin.
The ESPN brand, in particular, is a total standout for the company. It really is the "worldwide leader in sports," just as the slogan claims, as it has managed to become credible in college and professional football, basketball and baseball, as well as golf, tennis, auto racing and oddball loose ends like poker. It has also spun off additional channels and restaurants, and has created a great website. Really, you could not ask for more. It's pure genius.
And although Disney's film division struggled for awhile after ex-leader Jeff Katzenberg left to form Dreamworks, the purchase in 2006 of Pixar for $7.4 billion has filled that void. On the executive front, the company bumbled around in the latter years of the Michael Eisner era, but it has been rejuvenated under the guidance of new top dog Robert Iger. He was the right man for the job, groomed internally and has won a lot of fans on Wall Street with a reputation for integrity, showmanship and hard work.
So why is the stock still 25% below its 2000 highs, and failing to thrive this year? The problem is that despite all of its good deeds, growth at the company is pretty modest -- with revenues up only around 5% to 7%, or not much of a premium over the pace of the U.S. economy. Margins are improving ever so slightly, but the company remains tied to consumer strength, and that's not such a good thing these days. It's a very capital- and labor-intensive business, so there are only so many expenses that you can cut before you start to chip away at your core. Movie-making remains a very up-and-down business, no matter how much marketers attempt to reduce risk by picking what they believe to be audience-friendly topics, actors and merchandising approaches. And the TV business, despite its strengths, is an ad-driven medium that is subject to weakness as companies husband cash by cooling their marketing budgets.
In short, if there is a short list of large-cap industrial companies that should survive any potential economic downturns with grace, Disney would be on it.