The government recently released some new details on state and local employment in September, and it turns out that the employment picture is not quite as rosy as it looked earlier this month. Slightly less than a third of states lost jobs, while the 23 that gained jobs were very muted. As an example, Wyoming saw a 0.7% increase and West Virginia saw a 0.4% increase, both coal mining related. According to analysis by Philippa Dunne, 18 states went from positive to negative job growth.

One of the big issues with jobs lately is that high-wage jobs are being replaced by low-wage jobs. As an example, mortgage brokers in places like Phoenix, Arizona, and Costa Mesa, California, have exited that formerly high-paying line of work and instead moved on to service jobs in hotels, transportation and fast food. California alone is showing a loss of 11,000 financial jobs and many more in construction. In the manufacturing states, the tempo of losses are actually a bit worse, with large year-over-year losses in Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Michigan and elsewhere. Once again, virtually the only states with rising employment are involved with mining, such as Montana, Nevada and South Dakota. It's tough to see this happen around the holidays, but the cycle is merciless in that way.

Dunne, who knows more about employment trends than anyone in the country, called it a "discouraging" report that "further erodes any hope for hidden strength in the U.S. job market." I would agree, and it provides more grist for my view of trouble going into November.