The Dawn of the Next Energy Move
As gasoline and natural gas prices have soared in recent months, a very interesting thing has happened. Or not happened, to be more specific. Consumption of these key sources of energy has not waned, much to the surprise of oil and gas producers.
The lack of much protest from consumers -- aside from the angry phone calls on talk radio -- has really shocked the folks who run the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, more commonly known as OPEC, and led them to believe that there's no point in providing more supply to knock down prices. As a result, it looks to me as though we are probably never going to see oil move down below $40 per barrel again in our lifetimes.
If that's true, then analysts' and investors' view of the energy sector is going to undergo a radical upward reappraisal over the next few months and years. Energy companies' shares might seem high to you now, as big-caps like ExxonMobil (XOM) are trading at all-time highs, but you ain't seen nothin' yet. When investors collectively decide that the new "band" for oil prices is $50 to $65 rather than $35 to $50, then virtually all energy stocks are in for a major upward move.
In this scenario, every subsector of the energy industry will move higher: Oil and gas drillers, services providers, explorers, refiners, pipeline owners and the major integrators. We are just seeing the dawn of that move now, and it should continue to surprise people.
