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Babies, Bathwater, Turkey and Emerging Markets...

As I suggested in my February 13 post "Emerging Markets Decoupling?" the emerging markets have not convincingly "decoupled" from the US markets yet, as evidenced by the recent high-beta volatility, typically in the same direction as the US markets are moving at the moment. Looks more like "re-coupling" to me!

Although it may appear counter-intuitive, this actually spells opportunity for the educated emerging and frontier markets investors, since many good companies will be sold-off unfairly to deeply discounted levels - the old "baby out with the bathwater" theme.

The trick is trying to determine when the bath is empty and the right time to start looking around for the babies! Well, we're waiting for that right now. The signals are still mixed and we will certainly see more volatility, but opportunity is near.

One more stock on my short list of potentials which is looking more like a wet baby we should save after the recent sell-off is Turkcell Iletisim (ADR: TKC). Turkcell is Turkey's dominant mobile phone company and I believe the only Turkish ADR available to US investors.

In addition to mobile cell phone service (currently 32 million subscribers and growing) Turkcell offers other services, including data transfer, news and sports broadcasts, music downloads, chat messaging services and email.

It also has strong exposure to and operations in the Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other countries in Central Asia.

The time is not right yet for Turkcell, but I like the company's story and I like the prospects in Turkey going forward, especially considering the NATO and European Union connections. I may start nibbling when the shares reach their recent lows, near 21, depending on the technical and fundamental picture of the shares and the company/country at that time.

Don't buy into Turkcell just yet, but stay tuned. More soon...

Best wishes,
Jeff Manera

Emerging Markets Insider
Email: Jmanera@EmergingMarketsInsider.net

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