Whazzup? Not much -- especially not stocks. But neither have they continued to plunge drastically. My portfolio is still optimized to do well in a bear market and I've left it that way believing that the overall bear has at...
In the last days of StrategyLab 2 I dumped UDN (short the dollar) which inexplicably had not been growing as much as I thought it should lately, and bought FXF (long Swiss Franc) in its place. During the final days,...
1. In a bear market I cannot just seek out superior companies. I have to seek out the best industries and countries, then look for the best companies in those areas. 2. ETFs are useful when I dont know enough...
Today is the last day of the contest. Recently I made some last-minute tweaks. I sold some steel as it started to fall. Bought some coal (BTU and ACI) instead. UDN (Short the US dollar) had been inexplicably flat in...
And gold, too. The problem is getting it out. Yes, the Rockies really do still have a lot of gold. Unfortunately it is mixed in with a lot of dirt. A Google search will net you surface mining equipment including...
I am debating whether to sell some (or all) of HEICO Corp. (HEI) which is at present the worst-performing stock in my StrategyLab Fund. On July 31, 2007, this was one of my very first picks for SLO1. At that...
I am debating whether to sell some (or all) of HEICO Corp. (HEI) which is at present the worst-performing stock in my SLO Fund. On July 31, 2007, this was one of my very first picks for SLO1. At that...
Here are some more changes in my 2 funds over the last couple of months. As I intend to keep the SLO Fund at Marketocracy permanently, trades here are based not only on maximizing gains during the course of the...
I wish there were a Casey's General Store here in Colorado so I could visit one. In spite of their aggressive growth plans, they haven't reached the Rocky Mountains yet; so I'll have to rely on financials when deciding whether...
Recover anytime soon, that is. I said everything there is to say about FNM in my blog entry last November when it was the Question of the Week at that time. Nothing has changed except, perhaps, for the worse. As...
I'm good. I took much of January "off" between contests. Now, work has heated up so I don't have as much time and energy for the contest or blogging. Managing my Marketocracy portfolios takes precedence over creating long, well-thought-out blogs. How about you? Are you planning some new blog posts in conjunction with the 2nd SLO contest?
Posted by toroandbruin | February 5, 2008 9:54 PM
I like PHO and I love ETFs in general; however to remain compliant we are allowed to have only 25% of our StrategyLab fund in ETFs. I save my ETF holdings for things I can't get any other way such as shorting and some foreign companies. So instead of investing directly in PHO I looked at the stocks they hold and bought two of them, VE and LNN.
Posted by toroandbruin | February 29, 2008 1:12 PM
Today I read another water article which leads to even more related companies and ETFs, which again lead to yet more. It's at http://www.forbes.com/2008/03/01/water-shortage-veolia-markets-equity-cx_ra_0229markets28.html?partner=yahootix
The article mentions that desalinization is so expensive because it takes a lot of electricity; however, the technology is improving.
Also, at the bottom of this article there's a link to the original Forbes article I read and another interesting one on China.
These leads should keep me busy doing more research this weekend.
Posted by toroandbruin | March 1, 2008 11:35 AM
RE:"There is a military term for retreating forward, I forget what."
You might be thinking of the Tai Chi move "Repulsing the Monkey". I've heard the monkey symbolizes fate. The move and term are really a propos in this bear situation.
Posted by toroandbruin | March 16, 2008 10:53 PM
Many thanks for telling me about UDN. It is just what I was looking for!
Posted by toroandbruin | March 17, 2008 12:36 PM
If I were investing in retail, I'd also consider WalMart's smaller competitors, Biglots (BIG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Family Dollar (FDO). Some of those stores are starting to sell bargain-priced food, too.
Posted by toroandbruin | April 2, 2008 10:47 AM
There are just too, darned many human beings on the face of this earth! From the air, much of our country looks like a prairie dog village gone berserk. Our various sources of energy would be perfectly adequate and would not threaten the environment if there were proportionally many fewer of us and many more of other plants and animals to balance out the ecology. Of course I don't believe in bringing back more war, starvation and plagues to even things out, as used to be the case. But we do need to get a grip and reduce our numbers. It is the only long-term solution. In the meantime -- IMHO you were right in an earlier posting when you said it should be a crime to use corn crops for ethanol.
Posted by toroandbruin | April 8, 2008 1:54 PM
It depends on the ETFs. ETFs can be a great way to invest in a hot industry or country when you don't know much about that area. Since there are short ETFs, it is also a good way to make short bets if you don't feel confident handling shorting on your own. And the StrategyLab contest doesn't allow shorting any other way. The contest allows only 25% of your holdings to be in ETFs; so you have to decide how to use them most effectively.
Posted by toroandbruin | April 21, 2008 3:08 PM
Yet another reason not to like airlines stocks -- teleconferencing, Internet conferencing and video conferencing are still increasing and becoming more sophisticated. Even if the price of fuel drops there will be less and less reason for business travel. I forsee airlines continuing to shrink. The exception to this may be in developing countries where their growing economies will need more transportation of all kinds.
Posted by toroandbruin | April 25, 2008 12:35 PM
I'm glad that you're posting again even if you didn't enter the current competition. I always find your ideas and outlook useful.
Posted by toroandbruin | May 30, 2008 1:02 PM
I tried this with ELN, the "Question Of The Week" company.
If I'd bought when the TrendSpotter dots switched to below the current price, I would have bought at about $34.75 or $35.00. Then if I'd sold when the dots switched to above the current price I would have sold at about $35.25. A gain.
Buying again at a switch to above I would have paid about $35.75. This is more than I'd just sold for but still maybe a good move.
To see if this works, historically maybe I need a larger time period. I tried the same chart but used 3-1/2 days.
I would have bought at about $33.50. I would have bought more at about $34.75. Then I would have sold the whole thing at about $34.75. A gain, overall.
Next I would have bought again at close to $35. and sold again at $35.25. Another gain.
I would have bought once more at about $35.50 and would still be holding at this point.
That is, I would have done all this if I had the time to constantly check the TrendSpotter and make trades.
But for this ticker symbol I can't see anyhing which would really affect my overall decision. Maybe I shouldn't have tried this with a volatile bio/pharma stock.
Can you suggest a good typical stock to experiment with?
Posted by toroandbruin | June 30, 2008 1:42 PM