Your MGI is a good find. What resources do you use to unearth diamonds in the rough.

I am not sure why you are only shorting and no longs. Can you drop few lines on your positions.
When do you plan on taking a short position on China market using the new Profund's ultra short.

Tom, What we don't know is if this the bottom for MGI and ABK or they have to file for bankruptcy protection In a recent interview with FORTUNE, renowned value investor of Third Avenue fund Marty Whitman said they are buying Radian(RDN). He is very thorough in his risk analysis.

Robert, In the aftermath pirates, what shipping companies for dry goods and LNG would you favor

I do not agree with Ken. It is too simplistic to assume that investors will flok to FNM, because of bad bets by the likes of CFC. I prefer to choose a stock on its own merits.
In my view, both Fannie and Fredie should be split into smaller companies and government should remove its backing ...

I wish someone responds to your query ..

Vad, How did you come across your pick GEOY. It doubled in the last six months. What are its prospects for anext 3 years? It is located a few miles from me and I did not even know it existed!!

Great post. I am glad you talked about your portfolio and your take on stocks. I am thankful you spared me the agony of reading world events and markets .... I give you a 3 for your pertinent post...

Robert or Crow,
Once again an excellent post. Always informative and enlighting. May be you can write about high dividends by shipping companies.
Do you still like DSX and GLNG. How safe are their dividends. I am thinking of buying for my retirement account.
By the way, have you thought about starting a mutual fund or ETF for shipping or transportation?
Gullapalli, Krishna

Stocksshaw,
Like your staright forward update to your portfolio. Thanks for sparing us with recycled views of the market etc .....

Rsack/Goodwill Hunter,
Go for it. Be prepared for a dip within the first 6 months or so when insiders could sell. I bought other financial services companies like MA, CME and PRU at their IPO.They are all well. VISA got real assets and is not one of those internet IPOs with only lot of hot air.

Thanks Shao. Once again your post is very informative. It answers the basic premise of your pick - what, why and when. It spares us from useless market theories.

Hope the organizers will pick you or some one like you who knows a lot about a sector. Best of luck? As DuffBeer cries over his beer, how long these high dividends last. Would you put your retirement money in them. On a serious note, I am looking for high dividend paying stocks with principal as safe as MO or DEO.

Great post. To the point and valuable insight. You ae the BEST blogger who brings a sector knowledge to this contest. You showed us the ocean and how to navigate, even with a beer or two in hand.
On a more serious note, could I invest in these high dividend paying companies. Will my principal be safe?

Thanks for your on the mark response. I hope the organizers of this contest will select you as winner, inspite of your portfolio performances.
Could you give us a few names good for Roth IRA for 2008 and beyond ... yes will stay around for a while ...

Robert,
How is it the shipping companies able to pay such high dividends. How long they will be able to sustain this? What were the dividends during oil slump? Do they operate like gas pipeline partnerships like MMP or REIT where by law they have to pay high portion in dividends?

Arun, Good posts. I used to own LOOP. stock took a drubbing recently. I moved to sidelines waiting for good entry point.
I too got interested in neurology. NBIX appears to have a good platform. Stock is sinking.
Are there any prospective candidates in Neurology?
Garg? What part of India do GARGs come from?

JS(IRA2007),
How did you manage to get entries in your portfolio showing 0 value?

Can you point out which stocks in your portfolio are Beaten-Down stocks and which are Earning-Growth stocks.
Thanks
gullapalli

Congratulations on your first and second place showing in SLO.
I agree to some extent with your take on banks. But some of them did not follow the maxim - banks and investment banks are in trucking business and not on warehousing. Examples would be C and MER who warehoused. Others like GS and LEH pushed them onto foreign investors and turned around and bet against them. Some like TROW completely cleared CDO from their books ahead of the market.
Which finance companies are good turnaround candidates? Would you buy companies like CSE and ALD?

I agree with you about Solar Power. China, India and Africa can only grow with solar power. They also need infrastructure (FWLT, JEC, etc).

Here is an interview on CNBC on 12/12/07. Brion, the analyst highly recommnends ENER
www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=607322897

Have you found any Solar companies in India?
Any comments?

DuffyBeer,
It is a pleasure reading your posts. It looks like you read most of the blogs. I read a few and impressed with sector specialists like #1 -StockShaw's Solar Energy, #91-MagicNiner's Shipping knowledge, Dividend Value's value investing and #59-CinualEducation's Biotech finds.
Have you found any other sector specialists who helps me understand other sectors
Thanks
PS: I think you are ready to start a MicroBrew and go head on with the likes of Adam and king BUD

Duff, Tell your young beer lover to use ETFs like Ultra Pro Shares Short to bet against coming China bubble burst. Otherwise stick with a focus fund run by folks like Marty Whitman of 3rd Ave (TAVFX) for value and Ken Heebner for aggresive growth like CGMFX. Always learn about the manager. Whether it is a pub or a fund, you want trust worthy managers with good judgement work for you
Have a Heineken on me ...

Shao,
Once upon a time I used to work for Shearson Lehman. Then Lehmaners left. Sandu Weil bought back Shearson which he sold to American Express. He then merged it with Citi, which is where it is at, albeit under a different name.
Before Internet, employees of Shearson could only trade at Shearson through their broker. Any time I got a call from my broker to trade so he can make money, he always prefaced by saying "our anayst so and so" upgraded or down graded a stock and so I should by buy or sell.
Net Net, analyst of a brokerage put out those upgrades/downgrades for their own brokers to hussle trades at $200+. I bet Merill still does it. Remember, unlike savy investors like you, VW and DB, most retail customers depend on a broker to select stocks for them ... I don't think folks using online trading care for the prouncements of analyst.
Fnally by the time analysts release, big money people already acted on it.

Try Wintergreen Fund WGRNX
Fund manager David J. Winters knows how to find a bargain. Also he started 1 1/2 years ago so it is still he who picks the stocks not a committee
Winters is the the managing member of Wintergreen Advisers. Prior to forming Wintergreen Advisers in May 2005, he held various positions with Franklin Mutual Advisers, LLC, including, president, chief executive officer and chief investment officer, and he was a research analyst for Heine Securities Corporation, the former investment manager for the Franklin Mutual Series Fund. Winters holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

Tom, Is this stock still a hold or dump?

Tom, Which companies are on your radar as turn around candidates for 2008-2009. I have my eyes fixed on BSX (Bob Olstein in Smart Money Magazine), YRCW (John Neff at 2007 Barron's round table), MER(New CEO), RDN (Marty Whitman of 3rd ave interview in Forbes) and USG,BLDR,BLG in the building products sector with.

Eileen,
Here is an excellent organization educating people about investing. They also have material for teaching and forming an investment club

www.aaii.com/

At SEC there is a wealth of information. The site below has links to many investment educational organization.

I think you are talking about how to manage money you earned through hard work. In my book, investing is making money with money.
I personally got involved with investing after I had achieved a semblance of financial security for my family. For example I invested for my children's education in Zero coupon. I only bought what I could pay in cash, not with loans. The only exception was Home Mortgage, with more than 20% down. I always pay my credit cards in full when they are due. I was very afraid of debt. During that time I spent a lot of time reading everything and anything about stocks. That is self motivation I srated investing seriously after I stopped working. By that time I had some play money, money I could afford to loose with effecting my life style. I view investing is an art and not a science and am afraid of loosing my hard earned money.

Good luck

I love your posts, lots of useful information about a sector and how to invest in this out of the gate sector. Good luck

Here is an excerpt from Dan Burrows of Smart Money in April 2007. It bodes well to heed his advice
Silicon shortages, regulatory uncertainties and technology challenges will make for a rough ride as the solar sector matures. As such, determined investors would do well to consider the bigger pure-plays in the space -- including JA Solar, SunTech Power (STP: 88.35, +1.15, +1.31%), SunPower (SPWR: 141.62, +3.47, +2.51%) and First Solar (FSLR: 280.91, +8.87, +3.26%) -- lest they end up like Icarus, who unwisely flew too close to the sun.

You can get the full story of "The Sun Also Rises " at

http://www.smartmoney.com/undertheradar/index.cfm?story=20070425

Good post VAD. What is your (exit) strategy for risk management?

If you like this space, take a look at FLR and ABB.
Good luck ....

Keith, You are smart to take advantage of opportunities. Fun reading your always entertaining blogs ....

Funny you mentioned Goldman. Their QUANT group is the one which shorted all other brothern in their cult. To look fair, scarificed a few of their own minions.

Happy new year. Good luck with your brewery. What are you going to name it?

James, Wish you best

I NOMINATE DON FERK

don ferk:
Please serve.

Good luck VAD. You deserve it
Are you starting a Financial Advisory service?

You can crow all over the ocean and land too. Your love of seas and indepth knowledge about marine transportation is incredible. May profis sail into your port.
Happy New Year

Tom, When an insurer of CDOs and SIV turns off lights and goes to Cayman island in their wool suits, all those insured sweats in the frigid cold in NYC. Winter is not over till April when all big boys fold their hands at CDO and SIV poker game.

Have a happy and merry new year ...

Don, It is your tax dollars that got you Semiconductors, Satellites and Internet - all curtesy of DOD. It is your tax dollars that got you Hoover Dam and Tennese Valley Authority curtesy of depression. I think the government has a hand in the development of nuclear power. It is your tax dollars that does all the fundamental research in healthcare. What is happening in Solar is we the people investing to reduce dependence on a single source of energy like oil. If you like free market you want choices not cartels like OPEC, Russia and Oil Companies.

Looks like your timing is good on JEC
I will try Feb calls on the stock.

Here is the full scoope from from Forbes.com

Jacobs Engineering is neck-and-neck for the honor of best-performing S&P stock of 2007, but it looks as though there is fuel in the tank to power it to additional gains next year. The company is in the construction and systems consulting business. According to Thomson Financial, the firm's long-term earning-per-share growth hovers around 17.5%.

The stock has been in rally mode since January, using the support of its 10-week and 20-week moving averages. JEC has not suffered a weekly close beneath the latter of these trendlines in 11.5 months. The shares are now exploring new all-time high territory and have their sights set on the psychologically significant 100 mark. Options activity is light, suggesting that the speculative crowd has yet to crowd the Jacobs bandwagon.

Wall Street has also been hesitant to jump on JEC. The latest data from First Call reveals that of the 14 analysts following the stock, there are nine "hold" ratings and one moderate "sell," leaving room for plenty of new upgrades in the new year. Consider JEC for your stock portfolio, or look at the in-the-money February 90 or 95 calls. Remember that liquidity could be a challenge given the lack of open call and put contracts.

ABB is a class act. They make the best generators for power plants. With all the power plants China and India building, they should have a very bright future for many years.

Tom, Looks like you put a high probability on the survival of these insurance companies. Do they have the money to pay off all the phony mortgages (subprime!)turned into CMOs by Merrill and Lehmans. May be you can explain the underpinnings of your hope for ABK ..

Tom, Thanks for your take on these insurers. I bought Baron's and read the article. I cannot say I understand everything you said and what is written in Baron's. How can MBI with 8 billion assets support 6b2 billion bonds. Only time will tell what is in store for these insurers and banks. The real culprits in this saga are the rating agencies. Every one relied on them and now they are down grading everything they once said AAA. I wish you the best. For myself, I am in the Cash is King camp.

Tom, Looks like your caught the falling knife with skill and dexerity.

When the iphone was first released, I bought it, tried it and returned it for a loss of $60. I am in the market for a MID (mobile Internet Device). Iphone or AIR are not the answers. When I see a product from Apple that I want to buy, then I will think about buying its stock. Until then, Apple's stock is a falling knife to be avoided.

These days I am keeping most of my money under my mattress. I don't want any rogue traders or fancy gadgets to separate me from my money.

Tom, You have been holding these Puppies (Dogs) for almost a year. When do you see black ink?

Hi Tom, There seems to be a bit of stuborness among value fund managers like Weitz, Nygren, mille et al. I never understand why they don't have an exit strtegy and try to cut losses at say 20% loss of a holding.
What are your 5 top picks in the financials?

These companies are like the Viagra effect. They don't last forever. That is why they are called momentum stocks. They are like sardine for selling only...

Hi Tom, I am glad you are keeping an eye on these insurance companies (HIG,MET,PRU), I will check in a week or you can e-mail when you dipped your toe... Hope you covered your bases on these fincials. By the any ides why a solid company like WMB is down 50%?
Gullapalli