Dendreon Redux (DNDN)

My regrets for not posting to my blog for the past couple of weeks.

Since blogs have a certain personal element to them I can tell you there was a death in my family that set things back a bit. At roughly the same time I completed the final edits of a novel, a biotech and financial thriller (how appropriate you say ?) and that set me back a few days as well.

No matter -- life goes on and e-mails keep coming in about Dendreon.

I continue to tell people the stock is worth about two bucks, while other analysts will go as high as four. But the stock continues to trade on irrationality, sentiment and wishful thinking. The odds are long against the company getting an approval on Provenge, based on the interim clinical trial data that it can submit at the end of next year. And if it does submit this data, and fails to get approval, this submission complicates the issue even further, and makes it more difficult to get an approval after the trial is complete in 2010.

So, please, forget the hype and the hope. There are many other companies to invest in, and the smart money will stay away from Dendreon. Put your money somewhere else -- maybe something totally the opposite of Dendreon, perhaps even something that's "un-science" like nutraceuticals?

On that note I am going to say goodbye for now and wait to see if any of you have any ideas you want to submit about your favorite nutraceutical company or product. I recommend you look at companies in distribution if you don't have a personal favorite, such as United Natural Foods (UNF) or Whole Foods Market (WFMI) right now.